Week 4 Record: 3-2
We’ve made it through the first quarter of the season. We now know about Pat Mohomes, the Rams dominance, and the Giants woes amongst other trends. With some data on the 2018 versions of the 32 NFL teams, we should be stable going forward.
Season Record: 15-29
Get excited for some square picks, lot of home favorites on the list this week…
Week 5 picks
Chiefs -3 vs Jaguars
Leonard Fournette has already been ruled out, and two starting Jaguar offensive linemen are banged up. If forced to play without Linder (Center) and Norwell (Guard) the Jags will be in trouble in a hostile environment. The Chiefs, on the other hand, come home, after a MNF 4th quarter comeback, and look to keep the Mahomes train rolling. Despite a short week, Andy Reid and the Arrowhead crowd will keep the Chiefs in this game.
Panthers -7 vs Giants
Coming off a bye and playing in front of their home crowd, the Panthers get offensive weapon Curtis Samuel back. Samuel brings another speed threat to the Carolina offense which should take some pressure off C-Mac and will help move the ball between the 20s. The Gmen were embarrassed at home by the Saints and both have trouble getting to the Red Zone as well as have trouble getting in the endzone when they are able to move the ball. The Athletic’s Mike Lombardi, former NFL GM, propagates the idea that bad offensive lines don’t travel well. The Giants have a bad o-line and the Panthers defense is looking very good this year.
Vikings +3 at Eagles
Minnesota’s offensive prowess was on full display last week against the Rams, despite ultimately ending up with the loss. Zimmer now has 10 days to prepare for an Eagles team that has not looked impressive yet. The Eagles defense, in particular, is not the dominant unit we have come to expect over the past few seasons, and they are coming off a grueling overtime loss against a physical Titans squad.
Rams -7 at Seahawks
The 4-0 Rams had 10 days to prepare for this matchup after a thrilling Thursday night win over the Vikings. Good coaches tend to be able to better take advantage of extra days off between games, so expect Sean McVay and Wade Phillips to run train on yet another outgunned NFC West opponent.
Texans -3.5 vs Cowboys
It’s unclear if the Cowboys are suffering from bad management, bad coaching, or both, but they are bad. America’s Team is 0-2 on the road, losing by more than a TD each game, and barely covered last week against a mediocre Lions team. By comparison, the Texans haven’t been much better but the Cowboys won’t be able take advantage of their weaknesses without Sean Lee. Additionally the Cowboys strength is supposed to be their O-line which has not looked good this year after losing Frederick in free agency. Buying the half point to the Texans -3 is a good idea but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them win by double digits.