Week 6 record: 2-3
Absolutely nailed the Chargers and Niners picks last week. The 49ers should probably have even beaten Green Bay, if not for the weekly Aaron Rodgers heroics. Unfortunately, our week was spoiled by a Bears team that just couldn’t stop Albert Wilson. Like most people who were on the Bears early in the week I was able to hedge with a little Dolphins +6 when Tannehill was ruled out, but it was still a suboptimal result.
Season record: 19-34-1
Da Bears spoiled a positive week for us but we have stabilized the past three weeks after a rough start to the season.
Week 7 Picks
Patriots -3 at Bears
Since Bill Belichick started coaching the Patriots, no team has been better against the spread. As heard on the RJ Bell Podcast, the Bears (try to) run a very similar offense to the Chiefs because Matt Nagy comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree. The Pats had 10 days to prepare for last week’s win over Reid and the Chiefs, and will be well-prepared for this week’s matchup with the Bears. Also, Khalil Mack is a bit banged up which softens the scare factor for Tom Brady.
Bills +7.5 at Colts
Derek Anderson just isn’t a major downgrade from Josh Allen or Nathan Peterman. In fact, Anderson might anecdotally be a better option than Peterman – at least he (probably) won’t throw five picks in the first half! Buffalo will pound the rock with Shady McCoy, and Sean McDermott’s defense is always ready to go. If not for a late pick-six, the Bills may have beaten the Texans in Week 6, and the whole team will be eager to give Derek Anderson enough support to be within striking distance late in the game. Also, 7.5 is too many points for a low-40s total.
Dolphins +3 vs Lions
The line just seems off on this game. Other than a surprise win against the Patriots, the Lions haven’t looked great this year. Yes, the Lions are coming off a bye, yes the Dolphins are theoretically tired after an overtime game in extreme heat, and yes, Brock Osweiler is still starting for the Fish. However, Miami is faster than people think on both sides of the ball and Brock Osweiler has been in Adam Gase systems going back to their days in Denver so the downgrade from Tannehill shouldn’t be severe. I’ll take the free field goal at home in a pretty even matchup.
Vikings -3 at Jets
The Jets have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2018 NFL season. They had one of the lowest win total projection coming into the year after picking in the top 10 in three of the last four NFL drafts. Savior Sam has led NYJ to a .500 record almost halfway through the season, but they don’t have enough firepower to keep up with Minnesota. Forgetting about the game against the Bills that Zimmer didn’t prepare for, the Vikes have averaged 26.8 points per game and they’ll have Dalvin Cook back. The Jets wins have come against who don’t run the ball well, and Minnesota with both Cook and Latavius Murray will be too much.
Washington -2 vs Cowboys
Dallas is riding high after hanging a 40-burger on Jacksonville, but they are 0-3 on the road. The Cowboys offensive line has looked shaky without Center Travis Frederick, and The Athletic’s Mike Lombardi always reminds us that bad offensive lines are even worse on the road. Washington will crowd the line of scrimmage to stop Zeke Elliot and make Dak beat them throwing the ball downfield. Jason Garrett’s team will not make the adjustments necessary to pivot away from their initial gameplan – advantage Washington.