Week 7 Record: 3-2
We’ve fought gallantly the past few weeks and earned a plus record in week 7. The Patriots tried to give it away by allowing a hail mary completion on the final pass of the game. Luckily, the Pats defense was able to stop Kevin White at the 1-yard line, but I nearly lost my lunch.
2018 Record: 22-36-1
2018 Record since we switched to five picks per week: 10-16-1
2018 Record since Week 4: 10-9-1
We are trending up, and are over .500 since week 4! Confidence is high right now as each team has finally established their identity. Example 1: The Browns, with one more win, will clinch their best record since 2014. Cleveland has dynamic playmakers and a strong defense but have been plagued by poor coaching and shaky late-game decision making. Example 2: The Panthers are very good at home. Carolina is undefeated at home but 1-2 on the road. They struggle establishing a running game other than Cam Newton because C-Mac is more of a RB/WR hybrid, and Norv Turner’s pass-happy offense offense requires more of a spread look. The established identities should make it easier to pick winner since we have more data, but ATS betting will still be difficult since Las Vegas has access to all the intel we have and then some…
Week 8 Picks
Dolphins +7.5 at Texans
Looking forward to the Lamar Miller bowl on Thursday night! The word on the street is Deshaun Watson has some sort of lung bruise or other similar respiratory ailment that prevented him from flying to/from Jacksonville. Houston is 871 miles from Jacksonville, so Watson had to drive over 1700 miles to go beat the Jags then come back home and prep for a thursday night showdown against the fish. The Dolphins defense makes big plays, averaging almost 4 TFLs and 1.5 picks per game. A tired Watson will, more likely than not, make a mistake, and the Dolphins have proven they know how to capitalize.
Chiefs -10 vs Broncos
The Pat Mahomes Show keeps on rolling at Arrowhead Stadium against Denver after a Sunday night blowout against Cincinnati. The Broncos have struggled on the road this year, aside from a win on TNF against a rudderless Arizona in which Denver’s defense dominated. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are averaging over 37 points per game and are the highest scoring offense in the league. Taking the league’s best offense against a middle-of-the-pack defense, even when spotting 10 points, is a no-brainer.
Washington -1 at Giants
The Giants have played like absolute dogsh!t this year, led by Eli Manning who ranks 27th in total QBR out of the 33 qualified QBs. Eli and the G-Men have just been awful overall, and yet Saquon Barkley dazzles week in and week out – even behind a bad offensive line! Washington has been nothing special, but Alex Smith has been able to effectively dink and dunk the deadskins down the field, eating up enough clock along the way that their defense isn’t on the field more than they can handle. Time of possession, aided by an aging AP on his last legs, as well as careful game management, has yielded a top-2 scoring defense for Jay Gruden. Always a privilege to get another week to bet against 37-year-old Eli.
Rams -9.0 vs Packers
The only reservation I have about this line is that Aaron Rodgers coming off a bye sounds like someone you don’t want to bet against. That said, Mike McCarthy’s coaching chops are unimpressive, and the Packers roster talent is as bad as it’s ever been with Rodgers at the helm. The Rams, on the other hand, are outscoring opponents by 15 points per game and appear wholly unstoppable. Todd Gurley is angry he didn’t win the 2017 MVP, and he’s playing like he wants to take home more than just the OPOY hardware. The Packers will need a certified Aaron Rodgers miracle to cover this spread.
Bills +13.5 vs Patriots
Just too many points here. The Pats will (likely) be without Sony Michel, and Rob Gronkowski and Marcus Cannon already missed week 7 in Chicago. In a classic “win quickly to get the f*** out of Buffalo” game, the Patriots won’t unveil any new offensive wrinkles and will simply try to get through the game healthy. Assuming LeSean McCoy plays, the Bills will pound the rock and eat up the clock. If Shady plays and the Bills can score two touchdowns against the league’s 25th best defense, a cover is coming.