Week 8 Record: 1-4
While we put up a 1-4 record in week 8 I think we were on the right side of the of the Patriots-Bills game, where the Pats only covered because they had an 84-yard interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, and the Chiefs-Broncos game where the Chiefs were up 16 heading into the fourth quarter and got outscored 9-0 en route to a Denver cover.
2018 Record: 23-40-1
2018 Record since switching to five picks per week: 11-20-1
2018 Record since week 4: 11-13-1
Big slate of games this weekend including Steelers-Ravens, Rams-Saints, and Packers-Patriots. You know I’ll not only be in front of my TV but I may also have 2 different games up on computers in front of me in order to keep tabs on my action around the league. I am looking very closely at the point spreads this week and am sharpening up a little by betting on the numbers instead of the teams.
Week 9 Picks
Bills +10 vs Bears
Buffalo is a double digit underdog at home for the second straight week. Let’s do some math here:
The Patriots were a three point favorite when they played the Bears in Chicago, so Vegas thinks the Pats are six points better than the Bills.
The Patriots were favored by 13.5 last week in Buffalo.
If the Pats are six points better than the Bears, and you assume the 13.5 point spread had a little extra juice in it to try to get money on the Bills last week, shouldn’t the Bears be a 7-8 point favorite in Buffalo?
This doesn’t add up for me, give me Sean McDermott and the Bills in a game where the over/under total is 37.5.
Vikings -5 vs Lions
The default home field advantage is three points. The five point spread means that Vegas only thinks the Vikings are two points better than the Lions on a neutral field and means the Lions would be favored by one if they played this week in Detroit instead of Minnesota.
No way would the Lions actually be favored at home, especially after trading away their best receiver. The spread should be six points or more here so give me the Vikings here and yes, I LIKE THAT!
Steelers +3 at Ravens
As per NFL-betting legend Steve Fezzik, home field advantage is lessened in divisional matchups. The Steelers have turned it around since starting the season slow and have scored the 8th most points in the league in addition to boasting a 4-2-1 record. If you assume these two teams would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field, the Ravens should only be a two or 2.5 point favorite due to Fezzik’s theory. I’ll take Pittsburgh getting a free FG.
Texans +1 at Broncos
The Texans are 5-0 in their last five games, they’ve had 10 days to rest and prepare for this game, and they just got Demaryius Thomas to replace Will Fuller who just went out for the year. The DT revenge factor is probably overstated but still has an effect, and the extra days of rest are huge. All signs point to Houston, which scares me because I would have thought that would make this either a pick ‘em or the Texans would be favored. Regardless, I am on Houston this week.
Saints +1.5 vs Rams
The Saints have been freaking awesome this year after a fluke week 1 loss to Fitzmagic and the Bucs. Drew Brees is having an MVP type season with a 14-1 TD-INT ratio and has the 2nd highest QB rating. The Rams are probably the best team in the league but this line says they are 4.5 points better than the Saints on a neutral field, and I don’t think they’d be favored by more than a field goal if they were to play on a neutral. Give me the Saints as a home underdog although I will be splitting my bet between the spread and the moneyline.