Week 9 Record: 4-1
Sometimes, things break your way. Other times they don’t. In the long run though, everything regresses towards the mean. Two weeks ago the breaks didn’t go our way. Last week Brandon McManus missed a 51-yarder as time expired to steer Houston from a push to a win.
2018 Record: 27-41-1
2018 Record since switching to five picks per week: 15-21-1
2018 Record since week 4: 15-14-1
After nine weeks we’ve seen some teams separate themselves from the pack. The Rams, Saints, Patriots, Chiefs, and Steelers are all legitimate title contenders while the Eagles, Vikings, Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, and others look to make playoff runs themselves. As such, get prepared to see these names over and over as we at FV are making our own push towards the mean.
Week 10 Picks
Lions +6.5 at Bears
Lions, Tigers (Auburn, LSU, Missouri, etc.), and Bears. All we’re missing is Dorothy and her ruby slippers right? In this one we have the “Tin Man” Matthew Stafford, we have the cowardly lion, Mitchell Trubisky, and we have the Chicago defense which forces turnovers like that swarm of flying monkeys. The way it all adds up, the line here is just too high. Chicago, coming off two big wins against inferior AFC East opponents, will have the hype train behind them and are poised for a let down. This week be a classic, hard-nosed NFC North fight to the death, so I’ll take the points and the under in a windy game played in 30 degree weather.
Falcons -4 at Browns
Atlanta rides a three game heater into Week 10. Yes, they’ve averaged over 31 and beaten the Bucs, Giants, and Redskins, but Dan Quinn and the gang have another softball matchup in Cleveland. The Falcons have actually played really well this year and only lost to the Eagles, Saints, and Bengals by less than one score each. The Browns, meanwhile, couldn’t keep up with the high-powered Chiefs O last week which is a trend that will continue this week.
Chiefs -16.5 vs Cardinals
The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-1 ATS (against the spread) this year and are averaging over 36 points per game. The Cardinals are averaging just over 13 points per game, only better than the Bills. Byron Leftwich got a win in his first game calling plays, but that was due to a miracle Christian Kirk touchdown with 34 seconds left against the 49ers. Leftwich will need to dial it up against the highest scoring offense in the league, but Josh Rosen simply can’t keep up with Pat Mahomes.
Dolphins +9.5 at Packers
The Packers are a paltry 3-4-1 which puts them 3rd in the NFC North and 10th (out of 16 teams) in the NFC. They are also 3-5 ATS and have only one double digit win, beating the hapless Bills in Week 4. Adam Gase will get the Fish motivated to play this game close with Ryan Tannehill coming back after their Week 11 bye – they’re only seventh in the AFC at time of writing and still in contention for a Wild Card bid.
Eagles -7 vs Cowboys
The NFC East SNF matchup is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions. The Cowboys are on a short week coming off two straight losses, the latest loss coming on Monday night at home against a middle-of-the-pack Titans squad. The Athletic’s Mike Lombardi frequently slams Jason Garrett and the Cowboys offense for being unimaginative and non-compliant with league-wide practices in a copycat league. Watching America’s Team’s offense you don’t see nearly enough motions or plays designed to get guys open. The Eagles, on the other hand, are trending up coming off a bye after doubling up the Jaguars in London in Week 8. They also snagged Golden Tate from the Lions in the interim, giving them one of the more formidable passing attacks in the league. Not only am I taking the Eagles this week I’m taking them to win the division.
Stats and ATS from ESPN