Week 10 Record: 0-5
Well, it finally happened. We picked both the wrong favorites as well as the wrong underdogs. Like always, we synthesized our key learnings and are coming back more educated this week.
2018 Record: 27-46-1
2018 Record since switching to five picks per week: 15-26-1
2018 Record since week 4: 15-19-1
There is a very strong slate of games this weekend with very compelling games Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night.
Week 11 Picks
Cowboys +3.5 at Falcons
After a big win in Washington, the Falcons went into Cleveland overrated. Atlanta’s defense is still depleted and got run all over by Nick Chubb and the Browns. Amari Cooper looks to have opened the Cowboy’s offense allowing Zeke Elliott to find some running room. Now let’s look at the line. The Cowboys are definitively a better team than the Falcons right now, but they are getting 3.5 on the road? If the two teams are equal then theoretically ATL should be favored by 2.5 or 3, but they are giving 3.5. The math doesn’t add up, give me another week of a top tier rushing offense against the 19th ranked defense against the run.
Washington +3 vs Texans
In addition to holding a 6-3 record atop the NFC East, Washington is 6-3 ATS. Is Houston 6 points better than Washington on a neutral field? I don’t think so. Washington’s defense is a big part of why they are 6-3 as they are tied for fourth fewest points given up this year. Lamar Miller will be a non-factor in this game and Alex Smith’s game management expertise will ensure the score is close in an 42.5 points total game. Bold prediction: Texans 21, Washington 20.
Saints -8 vs Eagles
After beating the Rams in Week 9, the Saints might be the best team in the league this year. Drew Brees has been incredibly efficient this year boasting the best QB Rating at 123.8 and the best TD-INT ratio at 21-1. Philly’s defense is 23rd against the pass, so Drew Brees should have a field day behind a strong O-line. The Eagles have underwhelmed us this year and still do not look crisp on offense or defense. In a Doug Pederson vs Sean Payton match-up, give me Sean Payton and the Saints squad looking to make a Super Bowl push.
Vikings +2.5 at Bears
The Viking are coming off a bye and have a chance to move into the division lead with a win. Minnesota is definitely trending up with wins in four of their last six games. The only teams they’ve lost to in that span are the Saints and the Rams, the two best teams in the NFC. The Bears are 6-3 but the only good team they’ve beaten is Seattle, and that game was week two. They have beaten the Lions, Bills, Jets, Bucs, and Cardinals – not an impressive list. The Vikings are a bona fide good team and Everson Griffen is rounding back into form.
Chiefs +3.5 at Rams
This a top three match-up of the year thus far. Rams-Saints and Chiefs-Patriots are the other two, and these teams interestingly both lost those games (albeit on the road). These teams are two of the top three scoring teams, and both have had defensive struggles at times. Folks, we are in for an absolute shootout, especially since they moved the game off that shoddy Mexico City field. The Chiefs are averaging 35.3ppg and the Rams are averaging 33.5ppg, this game might come down to whoever has the ball last. If this is going to go down to the wire, give me Pat Mahomes rocket arm, Tyreek Hill (the fastest guy on the field), and the points.