Week 12 Record: 2-3
We were a late 4th quarter Terrell Suggs fumble return for a TD away from another plus week. Instead, we saw a 2-3 week after badly missing the mark in the Hue Jackson bowl (Browns vs Bengals) and watching yet another Steelers underperformance on the road.
2018 Record: 33-50-1
2018 Record since switching to five picks per week: 21-30-1
2018 Record since week 4: 21-23-1
Had we simply taken all the 9.5+ point favorites last week then we would have had a winning week, but you live and learn. Eager to get back above .500 since week 4, this week’s slate of picks is very strong.
Week 13 Picks
Rams -10 at Lions
The Lions get three extra days of rest after losing at home to the Bears, but the Rams had a Week 12 bye which is a scary thought. The Lions are giving up the 9th most points per game at 26 and are only scoring 21 themselves. The Rams, on the other hand, are scoring 35 points per game and will look to break 40 under the dome at Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions, without Golden Tate, without Marvin Jones, and without Kerryon Johnson, will not be able to keep pace.
Cardinals +14 at Packers
The Packers are going to win this game. I repeat: The Packers are going to win this game. Probably by a touchdown, maybe even by 10. However, expect the Cardinals to cover here. Green Bay is primed for a letdown after seeing their playoff hopes dashed last week against division rival Minnesota. At 4-6-1, the Pack are 10th in the NFC, solidly behind the Bears and Vikings in the North, and trailing Carolina, Seattle, and Washington/Dallas in the Wild Card race. In a game played in the snow, 14 will prove just too many points to cover.
Bucs +3.5 vs Panthers
Carolina is 1-4 on the road this year with their only win coming at Philadelphia early in the season while facing a recovering Carson Wentz and the disappointing 2018 Eagles. In their previous home game against Tampa Bay a few weeks ago, the Panthers only won by four despite winning the turnover battle by two. Since taking the starting job back from Ryan Fitzmagic, Jameis “Crab Legs” Winston has been careful with the ball, throwing just one pick across two games. Expect the Bucs to take care of the ball against a division rival and keep the game close.
Vikings +5.5 at Patriots
I am not sure there’s another team I’d eat 5.5 points for against the Vikings. Maybe the Saints, but not the Rams or Chiefs. The Vikes are 5-2 over their last seven with losses at Chicago and at home against the Saints. Believe it or not, Kirk Cousins is 5th in the NFL in passing yards and is on pace for a 4700 yard season. Not only are the Patriots 25th against the pass, they are 30th in sacks, so it’s unlikely they will be able to muster enough pressure to move Cousins off his spot. Even in Foxborough, 5.5 is a strong value when you have a top ten defense backing you up.
Seahawks -9.5 vs 49ers
This is a pretty square pick here but, qualitatively, Seattle has looked great the last seven weeks. They are only 4-3 in that span but two losses came by 8 total points to the Rams, and they also lost by a touchdown to the Chargers. Otherwise, Russ Wilson has led them to double-digit wins over the Lions and Raiders, and one score wins over the Panthers and Packers. Coming off an emotional win in which Seattle gained the wild card tiebreaker over Carolina, the Hawks will take care of business against a bottom five team in the 49ers.
Stats from ESPN