Week 13 Record: 4-1
Very nearly a Flawless Victory in Week 13. Two of the three underdogs we picked ended up winning outright, and both favorites we picked won by double digits. Our only miss was the Vikings, who inexplicably only put up three second half points. Most importantly, we are back above .500 since week four, and have been absolutely crushing it!
2018 Record: 37-51-1
2018 Record since switching to five picks per week: 25-31-1
2018 Record since Week 4: 25-24-1
This week there are eight road favorites, so we will have a strong array of home underdogs to supplement our standard picks of Super Bowl contenders.
Week 14 Picks
Panthers -1.5 at Browns
This is simply a game the Panthers must win in order to stay in the playoff hunt. Last week’s loss to the Bucs really hurts, and Riverboat Ron will have to frame this as a must-win ahead of next week’s showdown with the Saints. Carolina has lost by one score in each of their last three games, and have lost four straight overall. The Browns are 29th against the pass and 28th against the run, and Carolina should be favored by at least a field goal here.
Bucs +8 vs Saints
Jameis has been great since re-taking the reins and his QB1 status. Winston almost led the Bucs back from a double digit deficit behind 200 yards and 2 TDs in a quarter and a half vs the Giants, then he beat both the 49ers and the Panthers in consecutive weeks. The Bucs are building confidence and add that momentum to their Week 1 win over the Saints in New Orleans. We’ll take Tampa as a home underdog for a second week in a row.
Giants -3.5 at Washington
The G-Men have won three of their last four and are coming off an OT win over the Bears. Additionally, we are privileged to have another opportunity to bet against Mark Sanchez. Third-string Sanchez came in for second-string Colt McCoy with 9:23 left in the second quarter against the Eagles last week, and only threw for 100 yards in almost 3 quarters. I had incorrectly assumed that The Sanchize had started his last game in 2015, but here we are in 2018 with another chance!
Chargers -14 vs Bengals
The opportunity to bet against backup QBs is a hard one to pass up. Against a Denver team that is objectively worse than this Chargers squad, Jeff Driskel only managed 236 yards and one TD in front of his home crowd. Looking at the Chargers, Philip Rivers is a legitimate MVP candidate, Justin Jackson is a revelation, and this version of healthy Keenan Allen is 7th in receptions and 12th in yards amongst WRs. Going back to the Denver comparison, if the Broncos beat the Bengals by 14 in Cincinnati then how much will the Chargers win by in LA?
Rams -3 at Bears
Lets just get the Chase Daniel discussion out of the way – the Rams will probably win by double digits if Daniel starts, he’s just not that good. Mitch Trubisky is questionable for Sunday’s showdown, but even if he plays at 100% I am not convinced he can pull Chicago within a field goal. Trubisky has played against four Top-10 pass defenses: Buffalo, Arizona, Green Bay, and Minnesota. In those games he is averaging 172 passing yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs. Those numbers won’t cut it against the high flying Rams, still averaging 34.9 ppg.
Stats from ESPN