Week 14 Record: 1-4
Things are starting to heat up with only three weeks left in the regular season! Teams in playoff position are making a push, and those who are out of the race are attempting to play spoiler. There, however, are opportunities to bet against teams who’ve given up already and there will only be more opportunities over the next three weeks.
2018 Record: 38-55-1
2018 Record since switching to five picks per week: 26-35-1
2018 Record since Week 4: 26-28-1
Week 15 Picks
Texans -6 at Jets
The Texans defense is going to absolutely eat Sam Darnold up. Jets have lost 6 of their last 7 with the lone winning coming against the lowly Bills. Additionally, 7/9 Jets loses have come by 7 points or more with the other two teams being the Titans and Browns. To move up to the 2-seed in the AFC, Houston needs to win out and hope the Patriots lose one game. The Texans have advantages in skill and motivation, look for a solid cover.
Bills -2 vs Lions
The Lions just aren’t a very good football team. They only beat the Cardinals 17-3 last week, and one of their TDs was on an INT return. Buffalo isn’t very good either but somehow they are first in the NFL against the pass and 9th against the run. The depleted Lions squad doesn’t do either of those things very well, so expect at defensive struggle. We might see LeSean McCoy take the field Sunday as well which would really help Josh Allen move the ball.
Raiders +3 at Bengals
The Bengals might be the worst team in the league right now. They’ve lost their last five games by an average of almost 15 points, AJ Green is out for the season, Burfinct is questionable, Andy Dalton is benched in favor of Jeff Driskel, and Marvin Lewis is likely out at the end of the year. Momentum favors The Vegas Oakland Raiders who would have covered their last four games if Terrell Suggs hadn’t returned a fumble for a TD late in the 4th quarter in Week 12. Fortune favors the $100m man.
Dolphins +7.5 at Vikings
Miami has scored at least 21 points in each game since Ryan Tannehill got back from injury, and they are averaging over 26 ppg in that span. Minnesota has only scored scored more than 33 once, and their highest score at home was 27. The Fish may not win but the cover is a strong possibility.
Titans +2 at Giants
This is the most confusing line of the week. The Titans are coming off a massive win against the Jags and face a depleted Giants team on 10 days rest. Tennessee is also in a dogfight for the second AFC Wildcard berth while the Giants are well-positioned for a top-10 pick if they lose two of their last three. The only hesitation here is the Saquon Barkley effect. Saquon is already a top five back and has the ability to single-handedly win this game for Big Blue. However the OBJ injury and Titans rest pushed me over the edge to Mike Vrabel’s side.